Wednesday, May 10, 2006
Thatcher & Blair - The Last Days in Parallel
Clinging on, desperately.
Love the picture on that article.
He's Daffy Ducked, isn't he? And he hasn't the sense/good grace to admit it and leave. His arrogance blinds him.
9 years ago he was the most popular Prime Minister of all time. Just goes to show that polls can say pretty much what you want them to say.
But yes, I would like to think that if I was in a similar position, I would shrug, and walk off the national stage. The more he clings on, the more he damages his party and his legacy. And the longer he clings on, the more likely his own party will turn against him and effectively sack him, like the end of Thatcher....
The parallels are chilling, aren't they? The question is, is Brown the new Heseltine - the lightning rod for dissent, and a king-in-waiting, who is pipped at the post by an unexpected candidate who rides the wave of a party fracture? Brown knows his history and no doubt this will have occurred to him.
Yes, the parallels are there. Thatcher won a landslide in 1987, and was gone before the end of that parliament as she became an electoral liability at the same time as alienating her party. Blair didn’t win a landslide in 2005 (although his result was more than respectable), he is now an electoral liability and is alienating his party even more than usual. Gone by September. Brown is definitely a Heseltine figure but none of the potential Blairites (Reid, Miliband, Milburn) match the Major model as they are so clearly identified with Blair. Major was seen as Thatcherite, but he was a relatively new figure in Tory politics and therefore detached from both the Thatcher and Heseltine camps. A similar figure in Labour today might be Alan Johnson or Margaret Beckett – neither is particularly identified with the infighting that has been going on since 2004 so they might be seen as safe candidates. Brown is politically astute, but he needs to be seen as loyal to Labour, not just to his own cause, if he wants to avoid a Major-esque figure snatching his long-awaited prize.
If we are looking at parallels, who will be the Geoffrey Howe figure who ultimately stabs Blair in the back and forces the leadership contest? By historical precedent it will be someone who used to be in the cabinet, in a senior position, such as Foreign Secretary, who was forced out of that role through no real fault of their own.
It could be Jack Straw’s great contribution to history...
Frank Dobson?
Or even, Charles Clarke?
They both tick all the boxes you list, and they both have a mighty grudge with Blair.....
Frank Dobson is another one with real potential. Not sure about Charles Clarke, however. He matches the spec in that he is really p*ssed off with Blair but he left the cabinet more owing to his own incompetence rather than Blair pushing him out.
Love the picture on that article.
He's Daffy Ducked, isn't he? And he hasn't the sense/good grace to admit it and leave. His arrogance blinds him.
9 years ago he was the most popular Prime Minister of all time. Just goes to show that polls can say pretty much what you want them to say.
But yes, I would like to think that if I was in a similar position, I would shrug, and walk off the national stage. The more he clings on, the more he damages his party and his legacy. And the longer he clings on, the more likely his own party will turn against him and effectively sack him, like the end of Thatcher....
The parallels are chilling, aren't they? The question is, is Brown the new Heseltine - the lightning rod for dissent, and a king-in-waiting, who is pipped at the post by an unexpected candidate who rides the wave of a party fracture? Brown knows his history and no doubt this will have occurred to him.
Yes, the parallels are there. Thatcher won a landslide in 1987, and was gone before the end of that parliament as she became an electoral liability at the same time as alienating her party. Blair didn’t win a landslide in 2005 (although his result was more than respectable), he is now an electoral liability and is alienating his party even more than usual. Gone by September. Brown is definitely a Heseltine figure but none of the potential Blairites (Reid, Miliband, Milburn) match the Major model as they are so clearly identified with Blair. Major was seen as Thatcherite, but he was a relatively new figure in Tory politics and therefore detached from both the Thatcher and Heseltine camps. A similar figure in Labour today might be Alan Johnson or Margaret Beckett – neither is particularly identified with the infighting that has been going on since 2004 so they might be seen as safe candidates. Brown is politically astute, but he needs to be seen as loyal to Labour, not just to his own cause, if he wants to avoid a Major-esque figure snatching his long-awaited prize.
If we are looking at parallels, who will be the Geoffrey Howe figure who ultimately stabs Blair in the back and forces the leadership contest? By historical precedent it will be someone who used to be in the cabinet, in a senior position, such as Foreign Secretary, who was forced out of that role through no real fault of their own.
It could be Jack Straw’s great contribution to history...
Frank Dobson?
Or even, Charles Clarke?
They both tick all the boxes you list, and they both have a mighty grudge with Blair.....
Frank Dobson is another one with real potential. Not sure about Charles Clarke, however. He matches the spec in that he is really p*ssed off with Blair but he left the cabinet more owing to his own incompetence rather than Blair pushing him out.
